Has film decline steadied out?

perkeleellinen · Jan 14, 2012

I'm generally pessimistic but I won't speculate.

However, the current deep recession with most Western countries having unemployment rates nudging 10% and after all the statistical manipulations that governments do are taken into account probably nearer to 18%, cannot help matters. There may even be a small spike in sales as employment rates grow.

mooseontheloose · Jan 14, 2012

Fuji will be an issue within the next 24 months. Film culture is very strong in Japan, more than perhaps anywhere else on the planet. It's hard to say if Fuji can cost-shift film production costs from other areas out of a sense of loyalty and probably near-monopoly. Very tough to see because there is obviously a very deep commitment to film as it made Fuji as much as it made Kodak. Fuji is just better managed.

Where's your source for this? As someone who lives in Japan I can say (anectodally) that digital is everywhere -- all the old film guys have switched over, and I have yet to see a young Japanese photographer shooting film. BUT...I live in a small city and still can get slide film processed within a couple of hours, and can buy a limited selection of slide, negative, and black and white film in 135 and 120 formats, so there must be some demand.

I have no particular loyalty to any one manufacturer -- Kodak, Fuji, Ilford all make great films -- but a loss of one hurts all. Competition is good for business (not just film!) and good for customers. I came back to Japan in 2010 after a 5-year hiatus and was shocked at how many of the old camera and film shop disappeared in that time. And in the almost two years that I've been here, I've seen film stocks decline by almost half in most shops that I've visited in half a dozen cities across the country (especially Tokyo). Until recently it was better than anything I've seen in North America or Europe, but now I'm not so sure.

removed account4 · Jan 14, 2012

i don't know if it stopped or not, but i have a feeling, unless ilford or
the other film(+paper+photochemical) makers push hard and start
to distribute their films in american drug stores and department stores ...
all the general public know is koduck, and when IT goes, they will
ditch their film based cameras and go D-- ...

keithwms · Jan 14, 2012

Well, let's bear in mind that the digital market has stagnated too. After a flurry of upgrades/updates and new this and that, the past year has seen very little from the likes of Canon and Nikon. (and Olympus is in big trouble, for different reasons) In terms of actual capability, you could argue that it's been stagnant for a while. Various new models have been rumored for some time, but held back, probably because of low consumer demand and also the floods in Asia and the tsunami etc.

Demand for these kinds of non-essential consumer goods has been an unprecedentedly low, across the board. This period hasn't been bad just for film, and there's no real reason for film to perform any better in a downturn. Yeah it's lower cost but processing is vanishing and has thus become more expensive...

Aristophanes · Jan 14, 2012

keithwms said:
Well, let's bear in mind that the digital market has stagnated too. After a flurry of upgrades/updates and new this and that, the past year has seen very little from the likes of Canon and Nikon. (and Olympus is in big trouble, for different reasons) In terms of actual capability, you could argue that it's been stagnant for a while. Various new models have been rumored for some time, but held back, probably because of low consumer demand and also the floods in Asia and the tsunami etc.

Demand for these kinds of non-essential consumer goods has been an unprecedentedly low, across the board. This period hasn't been bad just for film, and there's no real reason for film to perform any better in a downturn. Yeah it's lower cost but processing is vanishing and has thus become more expensive...

The digital market has nowhere near stagnated. Quite the opposite in fact. It's been one of the bright spots in manufacturing and export.

There was a downturn in 2008-9 for everything, but CIPA shows increased sales across all categories but P&S because of smart phones.

CIPA no longer tracks the sale of film products.

CGW · Jan 14, 2012

keithwms said:
Well, let's bear in mind that the digital market has stagnated too. After a flurry of upgrades/updates and new this and that, the past year has seen very little from the likes of Canon and Nikon. (and Olympus is in big trouble, for different reasons) In terms of actual capability, you could argue that it's been stagnant for a while. Various new models have been rumored for some time, but held back, probably because of low consumer demand and also the floods in Asia and the tsunami etc.

Demand for these kinds of non-essential consumer goods has been an unprecedentedly low, across the board. This period hasn't been bad just for film, and there's no real reason for film to perform any better in a downturn. Yeah it's lower cost but processing is vanishing and has thus become more expensive...

With respect, you really should look a bit deeper into data that allow an understanding of trends instead of offering generalities:

http://www.cipa.jp/english/index.html

keithwms · Jan 14, 2012

CGW said:
With respect, you really should look a bit deeper into data that allow an understanding of trends instead of offering generalities:

http://www.cipa.jp/english/index.html

Thanks for the link, which proves my point. YoY demand for DSLRs is stalling (unless I am misreading the numbers, in which case I appreciate having that explained)

The release of new DSLR models have been delayed, no question about it. And consumer spending has been very disappointing of late- that hits the whole market, not just cameras. ELectronic gadgets in general are not a sustainable market in my opinion. For too long the industry has assumed that a slight improvement will make people want to run out and replace their shiny almost-new whatever. But for technical and for financial reasons, that is not happening at the rate people expected. And now the euro crisis...

A big hit to the traditional cameramakers has been the smartphones with their high-mp cameras. Many consumers think a smartphone's megapixel is equivalent to a DSLR's megapixel. And companies like Kodak just aren't out there showing consumers otherwise.

keithwms · Jan 14, 2012

Aristophanes said:
The digital market has nowhere near stagnated.

I am happy to be shown wrong. But... my clear impression as someone who also shoots digital on the side (eek, I said it!) is that there have been many delays in bringing out new models. This may not show up in sales for a while but I think we've seen a big slowing of new product intros.

Anyway I just went through some CIPA data and they varied a lot from month to month, is there some graphical info?

Perhaps this should be discussed elsewhere; I doubt APUGgers want to discuss digital demand

CGW · Jan 14, 2012

And consumer spending has been very disappointing of late- that hits the whole market, not just cameras. ELectronic gadgets in general are not a sustainable market in my opinion. For too long the industry has assumed that a slight improvement will make people want to run out and replace their shiny almost-new whatever. But for technical and for financial reasons, that is not happening at the rate people expected. And now the euro crisis...

Smart phone sales? Show me "stagnation" there.

Difference between episodes and trends? "Of late" isn't the stuff of time series analysis--or argument. The jury is in on film consumption.

Grainy · Jan 14, 2012

Some parts of the digital market is for sure decreasing. I Norway camera sales went down with about 100.000 units i 2011, total sale around 400.000 units. So a 100.000 units decrease is significant.

keithwms · Jan 14, 2012

CGW said:
Smart phone sales? Show me "stagnation" there.

I didn't say smartphone sales were stagnating. I said that smartphone sales have probably eaten away some of the digital camera market... Cameramakers seem to have mostly missed the transition to online sharing as opposed to at-home printmaking. The social networking wave has probably clobbered printer sales. And then Kodak jumps into the printer market.... bad move. Imagine where Kodak would be if they had a strategic partnership with apple a few years back to, you know, revolutionize iPhone cameras or whatever.

As for "stagnation", let me refer you to a really wonderful little book by Tyler Cowen. (And no I am not his agent, although I will admit mentioning it here many times) Please have a look. I think it'll really ring a bell with many on here. It's not about little ups and downs in innovation and demand, it's about the problem of long-term stagnation in technology and how "low hanging fruit" brought us to where we are. On this subject, my blog on the need for "real Jobs" is on this issue as well. The point is that the fashion of replacing electronica with other slightly different electronica leads to zero job growth and long term problems for sci and tech.

CGW · Jan 14, 2012

keithwms said:
I didn't say smartphone sales were stagnating. I said that smartphone sales have probably eaten away some of the digital camera market... Cameramakers seem to have mostly missed the transition to online sharing as opposed to at-home printmaking. The social networking wave has probably clobbered printer sales. And then Kodak jumps into the printer market.... bad move. Imagine where Kodak would be if they had a strategic partnership with apple a few years back to, you know, revolutionize iPhone cameras or whatever.

As for "stagnation", let me refer you to a really wonderful little book by Tyler Cowen. (And no I am not his agent, although I will admit mentioning it here many times) Please have a look. I think it'll really ring a bell with many on here. It's not about little ups and downs in innovation and demand, it's about the problem of long-term stagnation in technology and how "low hanging fruit" brought us to where we are. On this subject, my blog on the need for "real Jobs" is on this issue as well. The point is that the fashion of replacing electronica with other slightly different electronica leads to zero job growth and long term problems for sci and tech.

Er, well, maybe you should trade in the tar brush for a technical pen:

ELectronic gadgets in general are not a sustainable market in my opinion. For too long the industry has assumed that a slight improvement will make people want to run out and replace their shiny almost-new whatever.

Sorry, I've no political or intellectual affinity with Cowen whatsoever. Try some Paul Krugman?

keithwms · Jan 14, 2012

CGW said:
Sorry, I've no political or intellectual affinity with Cowen whatsoever. Try some Paul Krugman?

Oh please, Krugman! Perfect example of an economist who stares at charts all day and doesn't actually know anything about the real economy. Yeah, we're deflating instead of inflating, I get it. Krugman's solution: just let our debt go way past 100% GDP and assume that what worked in the 1950s will also work now. And if he's wrong then the next generation will be effed beyond all belief, like Greece. But guess what, Krugman won't be around to take the rap.

If you'd look at Cowen's book you'd see that there is an underlying reasons for where we find ourselves. Krugman doesn't consider the underlying reasons at all, he just gets pissy and complains about some right-wing morons, as if that will make any difference.

CGW · Jan 14, 2012

keithwms said:
Oh please, Krugman! Perfect example of an economist who stares at charts all day and doesn't actually know anything about the real economy. Yeah, we're deflating instead of inflating, I get it. Krugman's solution: just let our debt go way past 100% GDP and assume that what worked in the 1950s will also work now. And if he's wrong then the next generation will be effed beyond all belief, like Greece. But guess what, Krugman won't be around to take the rap.

If you'd look at Cowen's book you'd see that there is an underlying reasons for where we find ourselves. Krugman doesn't consider the underlying reasons at all, he just gets pissy and complains about some right-wing morons, as if that will make any difference.

Let's stick to photography unless you also need to know which economist is the Nobel laureate, OK?

keithwms · Jan 14, 2012

I am well aware who won what, thanks. Yeah, I can know some others who won Nobels recently... the list is not impressive.

Back to film...

Rob Skeoch · Jan 16, 2012

Since I sell film in Canada this is what I've noticed.

Large Format peaked a few year back with the Ilford Ultra Large Film special run. Each year it's smaller. Could be because people are stocked up and not shooting, could be because the list of dealers has increased slightly, dividing the pie. I know my sales are right off. The ULF run does not include 4X5 or 8x10 sheets since they are always available. 8x10 is still strong, 4x5 is way down, 5x7 is steady but I noticed many of the sales go to other countries since they can't get the film there, which is new. Whole plate remains strong since few stores stock it. I just sold my last three boxes last week.

Roll films in the 120 size have dropped right off and are hardly worth keeping in stock.

Roll film is 35mm size are way down as well.

Of all the film I sell, I would guess that 75% is used by three photographers who continue to shoot film on a regular bases. Even my own film use has dropped off although I had a special run of Delta 100 made in 4X10 for a project I'm doing.... it arrived too late for last year's rodeo season.

-Rob Skeoch

epp · Jun 3, 2012

Alan Klein said:
Kodak's 2010 Annual report shows 1.7B in sales for their Film, Photofinishing, and Entertainment Group (movie film etc) out of around 7 billion total for the corporation. They had earnings of 64 million dollars in the film group. These numbers have been declining. However, the main problem is that the corporation is operating at a substantial loss. If they could go through bankruptcies and throw off their losing crap and legacy costs, they could have a small but profitable film industry, probably growing smaller though as time goes on. Or, some one like a Ilford or Fuji could buy out that portion in bankruptcy. Maybe we should take up a collection and go into the film business ourselves. Anyway here's the link. Check pg 95 after you open the PDF document.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9ODc4NDl8Q2hpbGRJRD0tMXxUeXBlPTM=&t=1

I do not know if Kodak is required to file an annual report while they are in Chapter 11, but from what I read online, Kodak's film division (above) was consistently profitable, leading up to the bankruptcy filing.

They have already announced they are exiting the digital camera business, but will continue to manufacture film.

I don't see Kodak selling the film business.

Prof_Pixel · Jun 3, 2012

epp said:
I don't see Kodak selling the film business.

My best guess, as a retured Kodaker living in Rochester, is the current management would if they could.

graywolf · Jun 11, 2012

Grainy said:
I don't think it has started to level off. The reason? There is more old people stopping shooting film than young people starting. I will say that in maximum 5 years the majority of the generation of old people photographing with film camereas has stopped doing so. The next generation of old people started to use digital when they were younger, so they will not have any problem with using a basic p&s camera. When that transition is over the things will level out, maybe even increase a little again.

I don't know, I am 68, and have gone back to film for B&W as I love the craft of photography. I would guess that shooting 35mm instead of digital is kind of crazy, especially in color. I shoot B&W with some old folding roll film cameras, a Crown Graphic (the most fun camera I have), and just recently picked up a 4x5 monorail camera.

For reference: my first digital camera was a Nikon Coolpix 100, so I have been shooting digital for quite a while. I use digital for client work (not much of that anymore), documentary stuff, my blog, etc. I shoot film for fun.

Kodak claims their film division is making money. I think Ilford is hurting due to the high value of the English Pound. There are a dozen or more companies worldwide still making B&W film and paper. The price of decent film cameras has been rising for the past 2-3 years. However, film is now a niche market and only fairly large internet dealers are making a profit at serving it.

Roger Cole · Jun 11, 2012

graywolf said:
Kodak claims their film division is making money. I think Ilford is hurting due to the high value of the English Pound. There are a dozen or more companies worldwide still making B&W film and paper. The price of decent film cameras has been rising for the past 2-3 years. However, film is now a niche market and only fairly large internet dealers are making a profit at serving it.

That's ok with me about the dealers. I had to deal with "fairly large Internet dealers" even in the 90s, because of where I lived. Now that I live in a major metro, it's the same situation only those dealers are much more accessible due to the Internet.

Ilford is hurting? I printed on MGWT FB last night and was just putting my film into my new-to-me fridge for such, at least a fair amount of which is Ilford. Maybe I need to buy some more. Kodak has just about priced themselves out of my next order of 4x5 film anyway. I like Foma to play with but can't count on the quality and the reciprocity failure is hideous. I love TMY-2 but maybe not enough to pay the price now. HP5+ would probably suit me just as well.

benjiboy · Jun 19, 2012

My local and the only professional photographic dealer now in a city with a population of about 500,000 only had a total of around 15 bricks of film 135 and 120 monochrome and colour slide and negative included total in stock the last time I was in there, when I asked the owner if that was all he had he said " very few of my professional customers still use film ".

benjiboy · Jul 13, 2012

On further reflection, I have seen no credible evidence that the decline of film has steadied out other than film enthusiasts wishful thinking, and I speak as one who has been shooting film for more than fifty years and owns no digital cameras, although I'm as sad as everyone else about the situation, we have to face the facts .

Rob Skeoch · Jul 13, 2012

I last posted on this subject back in January.
Since then film sales have continued to spiral.

Bob Carnie · Jul 13, 2012

As the world spirals down in film sales, we are exposing more film than ever.

I am burning through 4 x5 and 8x10 sheet film on a project that will take me a couple of years if ever to complete. My wife is exposing pro pack after pro pack of colour negative , and every once in awhile a few of my heavy hitters come in with hundreds of rolls of film.

It will never be like it was in the old days , but I believe there is a solid core of dedicated film users (myself included) that are very active in our purchases of fresh film and chemistry.

I do envision the day where major purchases of film and paper will be required to meet our needs but thankfully Ilford/Harmon and Fuji are still feeding our habit.

Today and over the weekend I will be burning through 5 boxes of Art 300 11x14 on my own personal project.

CGW · Jul 13, 2012

It's different than just a few years ago but film and processing are still available. Can't attest to a revival but I'm not surrendering my barstool as the Titanic slowly sinks.

Shooting E100GX 120 in a few weeks at a friend's huge 2-day Tamil wedding--great fun and an explosion of color.

Has film decline steadied out?

perkeleellinen

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keithwms

Aristophanes

CGW

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Grainy

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Rob Skeoch

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epp

Prof_Pixel

graywolf

Roger Cole

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Rob Skeoch

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Bob Carnie

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Has film decline steadied out?

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