How much of a film camera resurgence would it take for there to be a MAJOR drop in film (and paper) prices? I know that it would happen because of supply and demand, but how much of a renewed interest will manifest I do not know. (Whether such a resurgence is likely is another question, another thought.)
Already, color paper prices are in line with prices of yesteryear, if one adjusts for constant dollars. However film, especially B&W, is still very high.
There will be those of you who say this question is balderdash, irrelevant, inane, insane, or worse; but there are those reading this who feel that bringing up this fact to ponder is highly appropriate. - David Lyga
David - what we notice from film/paper pricing is what we can call :
A SELF-REINFORCING MECHANISM ! You may also state : A self-reinforcing development of decline!
It was the year 2000 - 2002 - you perhaps remember some new films that came out there, with some other inovations from photo industrie.
APS - the Advanced Photo System collapsed a year before!
The APS was planned as THE big coup from film manufacturers AND camera industry!
They had the intention to replace 35mm film for the amatheuric market!
I wish they could have had better ideas - it was illusory! But from the middle 90th camera industry
wanted to expand the market! And film manufacturers went "hand in hand" with them!
It is often stated that Kodak and others falled in deep sleep - that they have not reqognized the digital change!
That is not true from my point. They made a big mistake in 2 points :
1) - in 2002 ALL film manufacturers prognosted a parallel advance of digital AND film.
2) - All manufacturers underestimated the pace of digital photograpy!
In fact the sellings of films reached an all time high two years before (2000)! And the prognostics
that more and more people would shot more and more photographs was right - (notice the situation today) but their conclusion from that was from mistake!
The amatheuric sector of photograpy suddenly felt fine with expensive digicams of the 2 - 4 MP
class! That was the beginning end of all plans!
In case of Kodak there was no alternate plan - but what should have been a good "exit-strategy"
for Kodak?
It was the mass-market wich was setting the new - rules!
So - and this market development can no longer be reversed.......
....!
Because you have the situation of lower demand wich causes higher production costs wich causes
price increases wich causes demand decline!
How to break this circle? That's the Problem David !
This circle is UNBREAKABLE
- think about - it seams to be true!
So it is the end of photograpy with film the end of darkrooms a.s.o. - yes it is
!
But this end is comming slow - piece by piece!
What we also regard are interims cyrcles. Some interims "hype" with films, darkrooms and so on!
A revival cyclus wich louse substance after 1 - 2 year!
It you ask people what are you willing to spent max. for a film for for paper you can ASK people
every 2 years again - we can see this pricing actually today!
It is reached
! And manufacturers - what do they ? They make business - what else should they do? (It money isn't to make via volume it can be made from highest pricing
!)
At the end you have to pay EACH price! But the most photograpers are not longer "on board"
then. And a very smal comunity who is able and willing to spent horrable pricing isn't enough
to support such kind of industry (we are not talking about excusive HiFi electronic in lowest scales
[hand - made]..).
!
Wy should you not ask Trendland : " At what time did you began to buy films in highest scales and freeze this stuft?"
I will tell you : 2003! (but most stuff I got in 2005 to lowest pricing - you don't want to know
[ overproduction of films ]
It you ask me what pricing we will see in the future (some years) because the "Party goes on"
>15$ bw films.....>25$ E6 films. (c41 films may be the cheapest for a long time)...
!
Papers RA4 may be supported from digital printing - I see NO immense problem there!
What could happen ? If China is dumping the price of silver ? = no impact on film pricing !
(not as much as it would help) If younger people shot film ? They do - but this is no compensation
for photographers who stop film photography after decades caused from pricing.
Perhaps a power collaps (black out) ? We should not wish - and it would just hold up digital photograpers a short time
!
Something cosmic what cause the complete data loss from computers
!
But this would destroy our global infrastructure and is also no guiding principle!
with regards
PS : A period of big solar flares wich would destroy exclusively memory cards of digital cameras
each quarter
PPS : I know that last make me not a friend to digital shooters - but I don't care about..
!