Film photography predictions for 2015

[winterclock]

I predict that a number of threads on APUG will veer wildly off topic.

 

[hao]

lol ^-^

 

[lxdude]

47 years and counting here, if you count undergraduate and graduate work. I have heard the word datum used plenty of times and have used it myself. However, it is true that that the meaning seems to have shifted (or at least is in the process of shifting) to include both singular and plural.

In manufacturing, Geometric Dimensioning and Tolerancing is widely used. Reference points, surfaces, planes and axes are used, and each individual one is called a datum, designated by a letter. Datum A, B, C,etc.
The plural in this case is datums.

 

[Pioneer]

Where are 2014s predictions? Any hits?

 

[pdeeh]

2014?
That's so last year, Dan ...

 

[Ken Nadvornick]

I can hear Ken's argument for the SLR in my mind , but it ain't gonna help Nikon.

The definition of progress is not always a positive vector quantity...



Ken

 

[DREW WILEY]

I predict drones with cute little cameras will become mandatory gear for backyard burglars, peeping toms, drug runners, and insurgent terrorists. That is real progress. Thanks a lot, consumer electronics industry! Yet another curse of mankind (and wildlife) that needs a battery.

 

[cliveh]

I predict drones with cute little cameras will become mandatory gear for backyard burglars, peeping toms, drug runners, and insurgent terrorists. That is real progress. Thanks a lot, consumer electronics industry! Yet another curse of mankind (and wildlife) that needs a battery.

And the police.

 

[NJH]

I can see them getting banned here from open public use, nothing to do with privacy but the recent incident at a UK airport and all the worry around terrorism I think its going to nip that tech in bud sharpish.

 

[NJH]

In manufacturing, Geometric Dimensioning and Tolerancing is widely used. Reference points, surfaces, planes and axes are used, and each individual one is called a datum, designated by a letter. Datum A, B, C,etc.
The plural in this case is datums.

Same for anyone that has worked with navigation systems, datums used all the time and commonly referred to as such. The magic of google found this pretty good run through
http://www.colorado.edu/geography/gcraft/notes/datum/datum_f.html

 

[DREW WILEY]

Amazon was making a big push to use ten of thousand of drones to deliver packages right to your doorstep, once they perfected the delivery mapping software. Great... more trash in the air, failing and starting forest fires, planes wrecks, and killing birds.... But then on the news last
nite they had a segment where an overloaded one had crashed. Turns out the drug cartels have already been doing small deliveries over the
border several years this way.

 

[Henning Serger]

I hope Henning Serger will share his well informed prediction soon. He wrote a very informative summary on the last Photokina (just like previous times), which I really enjoyed. On personal level, I look forward to start processing C-41 and E-6 films, possibly in mid-2015, after I gain some confidence with B&W films. I am also hoping to buy some Ferrania films.

Bests,

Ashfaque

Hello,

thanks for the kind words!
As you have asked for it, you will get it from me .
What I am writing here is based on market research work I am involved in. So here we go:

- in general the current data available indicates that we will have probably overall more positive news in 2015 than negative news
- demand for instant film and cameras, both Fuji Instax and Impossible project, will continue to increase in 2015
- demand for silver-halide RA-4 paper, will also continue to increase; especially also in 'higher-value' products like photobooks and calendars
- demand for professional film (colour and BW): some types will see a slowing down of the reduction trend, some types will see stabilising demand, and some types will see increasing demand. Overall the situation for professional film is improving
- demand for amateur color negative film will continue to decrease (but a bit slowing down); this remains a big problem as amateur color negative film has the biggest market share concerning volume, it is a key product
- in some market areas of the used camera market (e.g. higher value medium format cameras) prices will rise because of higher demand.

Overall we're getting more and more indicators that there is a realistic chance that 2015 and 2016 can become the 'leveling out' years, that we get the "bottom", from which in 2017 an overall market increase can start, a sustainable film revival.
For that of course especially an improved marketing for film products is essential: Marketing from the manufacturers, the distributors and the professional labs.

I have said it once, twice and I say it again because it is so important:
Of course it is also “in our hands” as photographers, it is in our responsibility. There is a lot we can do:
- let’s give the digital cameras a break, shoot more film, make more prints on silver halide papers
- use the wonderful variety film offers: colour reversal film, BW reversal film, colour negative film, BW negative film and instant film
- be a real film shooter: a photographer who uses all these wonderful different film types
- be a “film ambassador”: get other photographers interested in film
- if you have an internet homepage / blog or use social media like facebook: spread the word there why you enjoy using film; support others who want to start with film
- educate the next, young generation in classic film photography.

In 2007 / 2008 all the “experts” were absolutely convinced that instant film will be the first film type completely killed by digital imaging.
But now instant film is the first film type with a real and strong revival.
If that is possible with instant film, than it can be possible with the other film types as well.
It is hard work, but possible.
Let’s do it!!!

Best regards,
Henning

 

[AgX]

Henning, where do you (as projection specialist) see the market for that new 6x9cm projector?

Not only that slide projection is a niche, 6x9 is a niche even more, in contrast to 6x7 or 6x6.
I was positively surprised by that. But still surprised.

 

[alanrockwood]

And the police.

... and the NSA, the one government agency that actually listens to you.

 

[ME Super]

... and the NSA, the one government agency that actually listens to you.

To paraphrase comedian Yakov Smirnoff:

"In 1980s America, you listen to man on TV. In 2010s America, man on TV listen to you!"

I predict that the most accurate predictions about film photography in 2015 will be made by the Worldwide Analog Photography Procrasitnators Society. Their predictions for 2015 should be out in late 2015 or early 2016. I also predict that Ferrania will be successful in bringing their ISO 100 E-6 emulsion to market, though it may not be in mid-2015 like currently predicted (I hope I'm wrong and they bring it to market right on schedule). The schedule may slip to late 2015.

 

[Henning Serger]

Henning, where do you (as projection specialist) see the market for that new 6x9cm projector?

Well,
the new Jensen slide projector
http://jensen-diaprojektoren.de/index.php/de/
is

- very versatile, because you can project 4,5x6, 6x6, 6x7, 6x8 and 6x9 slides with it (and the interest for medium format is indeed generally increasing)
- extremely solid, it is a "once in a lifetime" purchase (even your children can continue to use it when you are passed away)
- Jensen also offers the slide mounts
- slide projection offers by far the best picture quality at big enlargements at lowest costs, no other medium can offer that combination!
- for BW slide we currently have much more excellent film and developing options than ever; at no time in photographic history we had so much variety like today; and more photographers are discovering that
- with the Film Ferrania project there is also a new interest in colour reversal film in general.

Best regards,
Henning

 

[shutterlight]

Well, I just went to order my normal 5 pack of Portra 120 400 from B&H and was dismayed to see a price increase from $29 to $35 per pack. I was then horrified to see that changing from 3 to 4 5 packs in my cart led to a notice about how it exceeded B&H's stock threshold at the moment, and that it may be 7-14 days until it was delivered. I went back down to three packs.

 

[RattyMouse]

Well, I just went to order my normal 5 pack of Portra 120 400 from B&H and was dismayed to see a price increase from $29 to $35 per pack. I was then horrified to see that changing from 3 to 4 5 packs in my cart led to a notice about how it exceeded B&H's stock threshold at the moment, and that it may be 7-14 days until it was delivered. I went back down to three packs.

400H isn't cheap either.

 

[Roger Cole]

Well,
the new Jensen slide projector
http://jensen-diaprojektoren.de/index.php/de/
is

- very versatile, because you can project 4,5x6, 6x6, 6x7, 6x8 and 6x9 slides with it (and the interest for medium format is indeed generally increasing)
- extremely solid, it is a "once in a lifetime" purchase (even your children can continue to use it when you are passed away)
- Jensen also offers the slide mounts
- slide projection offers by far the best picture quality at big enlargements at lowest costs, no other medium can offer that combination!
- for BW slide we currently have much more excellent film and developing options than ever; at no time in photographic history we had so much variety like today; and more photographers are discovering that
- with the Film Ferrania project there is also a new interest in colour reversal film in general.

Best regards,
Henning

Well the projector sounds great but the web page linked just has a photo of it. No information, completely blank under the "products" section etc. (At least that's the case when I click on the Union Jack for English.)

What's this thing going to cost and where can one be purchased?

 

[Ken Nadvornick]

Well the projector sounds great but the web page linked just has a photo of it. No information, completely blank under the "products" section etc. (At least that's the case when I click on the Union Jack for English.)

What's this thing going to cost and where can one be purchased?

Yeah, I looked and saw (or didn't see) the same thing. I've got four very nice medium format options (two 6x6, one 6x7, and a 6x7 back for 4x5), and I was hoping to see more details.

If Ferrania can achieve escape velocity, suddenly a transparency projector becomes very attractive again. Especially for medium format. But if not, then I have no long-term reliable supply of stuff to put into a projector.

Ken

 

[AgX]

Roger, go to the German pages. The description is limited anyway.

The lack of information (or at least English information) is a issue related to several small german manufacturers, as Diaspeed, Dunco etc. All expect the customers to come to them and inform. Maybe they are hoping that some guys as Henning or I would do their marketing for them.

The idea behind the Jensen projector seems to be to deliver high light output for a variety of MF formats up tp 6x9 at high optical quality.


As there are no prices at the Jensen website I can only refer to what they stated two years ago at a german forum when the projector was not yet released:

projector: 2500-3200 €
5-elements lens: 1200-1500€
less-elements lens: 600-700€