Agfa-photo bankrupt

Ian Grant · May 28, 2005

Yes John's right and the sad part is their B&W films and papers are amongst the very best.

After all APX100 and the lost APX25 were true to their published ISO unlike Kodak's Tmax 50 whoops I meant 100, and the 200/400 ISO faster film. If you read the small print in Kodaks tech data they recommened down rating for tonality, something John Sexton told them before commercial release.

Thinking I have to say would I miss Agfa products, yes as an alternative, but as APX 25 went no I've switched to Adox/EKFE 25 which while different is superb.

Ian

jandc said:
They have been dumping film all across Europe and the USA at insanely low prices since they became Agfa Photo to get cash flow. They produce their products in Germany, one of the most expensive places on earth to make anything yet sell their products at almost Chinese prices. The collapse was inevitable. Their business model makes no sense for film and their sales of processing equipment can't make up the difference.

edz · May 28, 2005

jandc said:
They have been dumping film all across Europe and the USA at insanely low prices since they became Agfa Photo to get cash flow. They produce their products in Germany, one of the most expensive places on earth to make anything

Wrong. Germany is a cheap place to make some high tech things. There is a large supply of well trained and highly qualified workers yet wages are modest--- significantly lower, for example, than the US.-- and efficiency is among the highest in the world. While tax is, on the whole, high (among the highest) the laws are among the most favorable to large industrial multinationals. Shall it be mentioned that companies such as Siemens, BMW etc. don't pay any tax? Ever guess why after the takeover/merger of/between Daimler/Chrysler that the HQ would be Germany? Have a look at semiconductors such as the AMD plant in Desden. Not only are these large companies effectively tax free but get significant transfers from the state, both overt (matching funds, cheap loans, subsidies etc.) and covert (such as grants in aid and loans to countries keyed to the purchase of goods from a favored company). Shall it also be mentioned that venture capital investment gets turbo funds from Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau, various Bavarian government funds (the HQ of AgfaPhoto is Munich) etc.

Is the Efke stuff that you hype cheaper to make in Croatia on its old surplus machines using surplus stocks of decade old East German materials, hardly state of the art coatings etc.? And the workers (the few remaining) are also less efficient. The volume is low and so the returns to scale are also tiny.

yet sell their products at almost Chinese prices. The collapse was inevitable. Their business model makes no sense for film and their sales of processing equipment can't make up the difference.

It was inevitable as soon as Agfa spun it off into AgfaPhoto... nothing at all to do with the pricing. Higher prices would have killed them off faster than you can say "Cheese". There is quite a bit of competition and even CHEAPER than Agfa materials (partially due to the weak dollar and a highly efficient coating plant) is Kodak in Germany. Fuji materials too are quite competitive.. And for chemicals there are quite a few aggressive players all fighting to survive and prices are LOW.

And stop dancing.. 'cause.. If Agfa has trouble delivering product then Efke is finished!

jandc · May 28, 2005

"Wrong. Germany is a cheap place to make some high tech things. There is a large supply of well trained and highly qualified workers yet wages are modest--- significantly lower, for example, than the US.-- and efficiency is among the highest in the world."

Sorry bub, I lived there for years. One of my favorite places in the world to be. I visit there a couple of times a year. But the famed German efficiency has gone to pot as many workers get sick slips from their doctors constantly so they can get free days off at their employers expense and then do nothing at work knowing that they can't be fired.

"Is the Efke stuff that you hype cheaper to make in Croatia on its old surplus machines using surplus stocks of decade old East German materials, hardly state of the art coatings etc.? And the workers (the few remaining) are also less efficient. The volume is low and so the returns to scale are also tiny."

I got news for you. I sell the Agfa stuff too. I'm on record on this forum over and over again saying the more options out there the better. Pointing out the obvious about Agfa has nothing to do with any other manufacturer. I guess you would prefer the world rely on the incompetent management of Agfa to be the sole source of B&W materials in the 21st century.

"It was inevitable as soon as Agfa spun it off into AgfaPhoto... nothing at all to do with the pricing. Higher prices would have killed them off faster than you can say "Cheese". There is quite a bit of competition and even CHEAPER than Agfa materials (partially due to the weak dollar and a highly efficient coating plant) is Kodak in Germany. Fuji materials too are quite competitive.. And for chemicals there are quite a few aggressive players all fighting to survive and prices are LOW."

Got news for you again. The amount of film sold in Germany is nothing to what is sold in the US and the rest of the world. Just because you can buy Fuji Acros dirt cheap there means nothing to the world of film. I know exactly what the German market is doing right now. The fate of Agfa has little to do with what is sold in Germany. You really need to look at the volumes the rest of the world uses and stop thinking within your borders. Agfa's dumping for cash is exactly what Ilford and Forte did and they ended up in the same place. By your logic the solution to Ilfords problems would be to have a sale. But fools that they are both Ilford and Forte raised their prices worldwide.

"And stop dancing.. 'cause.. If Agfa has trouble delivering product then Efke is finished!"

Well I guess if Agfa fails and all the small manufacturers fold with it and extending your illogic take Kodak and Fuji with them we can close down this forum and switch to digital. Now I'm really concerned about the fate of Agfa, thanks for clearing this up for me.

As long as you're getting all excited about this how about the theory that this was planned from the beginning so Agfa could put the employees they needed to fire on Agfa Photo's payroll with a guarantee of no layoffs. Then they wait a few months and say we can't pay the employees. German law takes over and forces then into bankruptcy to pay the employee wages and allow for layoffs. You know perfectly well what it takes to lay someone off over there. The costs are huge. So maybe Agfa Photo is as highly efficient and organized as you say they are and set this up so all those highly skilled and motivated workers could be fired!

I don't suppose you have some vested interest in Agfa?

edz · May 29, 2005

jandc said:
"Wrong. Germany is a cheap place to make some high tech things. There is a large supply of well trained and highly qualified workers yet wages are modest--- significantly lower, for example, than the US.-- and efficiency is among the highest in the world."

Sorry bub, I lived there for years. One of my favorite places in the world to be. I visit there a couple of times a year.

Then you must really be "in the know" about the Germany.

But the famed German efficiency has gone to pot as many workers get sick slips from their doctors constantly so they can get free days off at their employers expense and then do nothing at work knowing that they can't be fired.

That's little more than demagoguery and of little relevance to efficiency and industrial output. Sure some Germans have abused their sick rights but the rate is quite low by world standards. By the same measure you have applied then MOST Americans are not even working since they are all drunk, abusing drugs and high on crack and, of course, their state of health is poor since working for WalMart they don't have any health insurrance and, at near subsistence pay, fall on the backs of the social system or wander the streets as homeless or rot in jails (especially high among Afro-Americans). Hire-and-fire does not increase efficiency but increase anxiety and the large number of social-ills that follow in its path.

"Is the Efke stuff that you hype cheaper to make in Croatia on its old surplus machines using surplus stocks of decade old East German materials, hardly state of the art coatings etc.? And the workers (the few remaining) are also less efficient. The volume is low and so the returns to scale are also tiny."

I got news for you. I sell the Agfa stuff too. I'm on record on this forum over and over again saying the more options out there the better. Pointing out the obvious about Agfa has nothing to do with any other manufacturer. I guess you would prefer the world rely on the incompetent management of Agfa to be the sole source of B&W materials in the 21st century.

I think you should stick to selling films for Mirko.
Do you have any idea about the development of Fotochemika over the past few years, how many people they've had to toss-out? Do you have any idea about their imputs, the materials they use to make their films and papers?

"It was inevitable as soon as Agfa spun it off into AgfaPhoto... nothing at all to do with the pricing. Higher prices would have killed them off faster than you can say "Cheese". There is quite a bit of competition and even CHEAPER than Agfa materials (partially due to the weak dollar and a highly efficient coating plant) is Kodak in Germany. Fuji materials too are quite competitive.. And for chemicals there are quite a few aggressive players all fighting to survive and prices are LOW."

Got news for you again. The amount of film sold in Germany is nothing to what is sold in the US and the rest of the world.

In most markets (inclusive of the US) prices are low and the markets are highly competitive. You are just charging higher retail margins.

You know perfectly well what it takes to lay someone off over there. The costs are huge.

If you don't have sufficient "betriebsbedingten Kündigungsgrunden" (economic reasons) it is expensive. Its about worker rights and not hire, use-up and fire. Post-war Germany was based upon the (now eroding) Social-Market economic model. Workers get protection in exchange for lower pay and syndicalist moderation.

So maybe Agfa Photo is as highly efficient and organized as you say they are and set this up so all those highly skilled and motivated workers could be fired!

The issue is that one does not need 1000s of employees to feed the market. The new mini-labs, improvements in coating etc. have meant that one could be much more efficient and operate with a fraction of the workforce. As part of Agfa there were insufficient reasons to have massive layoffs (beyond all the early pensions that have been going on for the past years as Agfa has tried to trim their workforce) without call for reparations. By now seeking protection its much easier to layoff (its cheap, one even gets some money) and restructure a new workforce (there are some government transfers available for this). With the current high unemployment rate in Germany and without a high-tech boom to perhaps lure away the "wrong" employees, its a very good time to use that "wild card". Hartmut Emans (the guy behind NannO) knows how that works (and how, its been alleged in several cases against him by the European Union, to highjack public funds). Emans used to be a part of the Lintra-Gruppe.

Why do you think that Agfa themselves provided the money for the "group" to "buy it"?

I don't suppose you have some vested interest in Agfa?

I have a vested interest in all companies and the welfare of all workers.

gnashings · May 29, 2005

Wow, I don't know how this got all personal all of a sudden... I thought we were all on the same side here...

But, lets hope that the rush of APUG users at the Rodinal trough (myslef included) will single handedly rescue Agfa from its troubles...OK, that is a bit light hearted... I doubt that the almost fairy tale solution that Ilford found will work for Agfa. I also doubt they have the ability to transform into a niche market supplier - from what I understand, its too big a company with too many other interests to be concerned with (then again, I don't pretend to know the inner workings of Agfa) - to do what Ilford did.

Wether you count yourself among Agfa fans, or fans of some of its products, or not - I think this is a reason for concern for all of us. We have been so cornered by the digital epidemic, that its very much a case of united we stand, divided we fall. I don't expect many of us will try to sell the average point - n - shoot user on the virtues of film, its a mute point - in that application there really is no argument against digital. But with the right marketing I see a resurgence of film as a big possibility - it will become the Leica, the Rolex, the Rolls-Royce - all the snobs that saw digital as the latest and greatest way to spend money will return to film as a luxury - something to be seen with. Unfortunately, there is a great possibility that at that point, guys like me won't be able to afford to take photos.

edz · May 29, 2005

gnashings said:
I don't expect many of us will try to sell the average point - n - shoot user on the virtues of film, its a mute point - in that application there really is no argument against digital.

Of course there are arguments against digital EXACTLY in that application.
- Digital gear is expensive (short product cycles)--- or do you expect people to use (or be able to use) the same digital camera for years on end?
- Because the inputs (RA-4 Paper and chemicals) are the same between analog and digital but the digital side needs constant technology tracking with shorter product cycles its more expensive to do and thus even with "mineral water" economies its still more expensive to provide prints.
- Digital "negatives" (e.g. storage") is far from archival. The best storage available today is Magneto-Optical (rated at 50 years) but few use them (and hardly any in this application). CDROM has less storage life than the reds in 1960s colour film--- very similar organic dyes. Few images shall outlive their short lived cameras. Since its about, to snatch an old ad slogan, "sharing memories" (snapshots) this is a not insignificant issue that most consumers don't understand.
- Digital has the gimic factor and its instant to view like a Polaroid but the "kick" seems to fade fast among consumers.
- Most people effectively don't take many pictures. Looking at the output statistics the cost of using digital is thus several times over the cost of using film.

And already now, following the boom/fad, we are seeing a decline in demand for these low cost digital cameras. Companies like HP are trying to hold-on and prices are in free fall (already now 4 MP cameras are available at the 70 EURO price point) and demand is slowing. These consumer digital cameras won't go the way of the Furbee or Cabbage Patch fads but its increasingly clear that its an unfortunate market for vendors. 3G cellular phones too have not really been catching on and this might too indicate that the digital imaging consumer market is much softer than the hype has suggested.

In the context of Agfa? They are on the bleeding edge of the digital mini-labs and so its not really "missed the boat" but that the boat is .....

mikewhi · May 29, 2005

As for me I just bought 2 cases of Rodinal and all the Agfa 120 ASA 100 film the place had in stock. I should be set for Rodinal for the rest of my life. I even have some APX 25 in 35mm and 120 around.....

I hope they survive and are able to continue to make their products.

-Mike

Sean · May 29, 2005

A bit off topic but Hollywood is hitting a slump now thanks to digital convenience. Looks like people are passing up the movies for their home theatres, and netflix service (dvd rental schemes). Iomega has also patented technology to get 1Terrabyte of data onto a single DVD. Imagine that 1TB DVD's, the piracy will be unreal with entire software libraries, movies, massive mp3 collections all floating around on 1TB black market DVD's. Other interesting news HP & Microsoft are pushing their new global ID cards which are touted as "secure" -wonder how long it'll take to crack them. The new playstation 3 due out next year has a 7 core 3.5ghz chip developed by ibm,sony, and toshiba, also the chip is going open source so this tech could reshape the entire industry leaving many pc manufacturers and software houses in flames. At the rate things are going we might just have to sit back and watch digital tech implode on itself..

gareth harper · May 29, 2005

Sorry bub, I lived there for years. One of my favorite places in the world to be. I visit there a couple of times a year. But the famed German efficiency has gone to pot as many workers get sick slips from their doctors constantly so they can get free days off at their employers expense and then do nothing at work knowing that they can't be fired.

Well I was paying some attention to what jandc had to say, as he/she appears to work in the trade. But it appears that he/she is talking little more than verbal diarrhea. Yup we heard all this crap from many American posters when Ilford went under. And that's what it is utter crap.

Meanwhile please stick to running your little shop and spare us the the 'it's the lazy workfroces fault' bull.

Isa7bela · May 29, 2005

edz said:
The issue is that one does not need 1000s of employees to feed the market. The new mini-labs, improvements in coating etc. have meant that one could be much more efficient and operate with a fraction of the workforce. As part of Agfa there were insufficient reasons to have massive layoffs (beyond all the early pensions that have been going on for the past years as Agfa has tried to trim their workforce) without call for reparations. By now seeking protection its much easier to layoff (its cheap, one even gets some money) and restructure a new workforce (there are some government transfers available for this). With the current high unemployment rate in Germany and without a high-tech boom to perhaps lure away the "wrong" employees, its a very good time to use that "wild card". Hartmut Emans (the guy behind NannO) knows how that works (and how, its been alleged in several cases against him by the European Union, to highjack public funds). Emans used to be a part of the Lintra-Gruppe.

If this is indeed the wildcard for AgfaPhoto, then this move obviously is a reaction to current market demands in the market. Olympus, which to the best of my knowledge is completely digital (photography), also had to lay off people in their China plant as a reaction to weak earnings. It is always unfortunate to see people loose their jobs....but the reality is that making the 'desired' profits means that companies will continue to re-structure based on current market demands and always seem to include layoffs.

jandc · May 29, 2005

gareth harper Well I was paying some attention to what jandc had to say said:
Had you been paying a little better attention you would have realized that my original post covered the problems at Agfa and said nothing about "lazy workers". Then Mr. edz comes along with an ax to grind against Efke in the form of a rebuttal to my post. Mr. Edz is well know for his childish posts on the German forums also. So his chain needed to be pulled so he would reveal his true interest in this topic. Which he does when he brings Mirko from Fotoimpex into the picture.

Anyway, I'm done with this thread.

gareth harper · May 29, 2005

jandc said:
Had you been paying a little better attention you would have realized that my original post covered the problems at Agfa and said nothing about "lazy workers". Then Mr. edz comes along with an ax to grind against Efke in the form of a rebuttal to my post. Mr. Edz is well know for his childish posts on the German forums also. So his chain needed to be pulled so he would reveal his true interest in this topic. Which he does when he brings Mirko from Fotoimpex into the picture.

Sorry bub, I lived there for years. One of my favorite places in the world to be. I visit there a couple of times a year. But the famed German efficiency has gone to pot as many workers get sick slips from their doctors constantly so they can get free days off at their employers expense and then do nothing at work knowing that they can't be fired.

You can make all the excuses you want, but such remarks are cheap, nasty and unacceptable.

Anyway, I'm done with this thread.

Good.

phfitz · May 29, 2005

Hi there,

I am sorry to hear of AGFA's problems, but if it is office politics to milk the system then someone left that door open for them. I wonder why they have to go to such great lengths just to trim their workforce???

Being that Kodak was buying silver at a rate of thousands of TONS per week, add in Ilford. Agfa, Maco, et al, are we actually going to pull down an asteroid to get more silver metal?

As to EU bashing U.S.A., you do not want to go there, you will get kicked to the curb. I will suggest you stand up to your full height, look around with your eyes open and realize you're about to have your butts handed to you by China/India.

Politics have nothing to do with film.

edz · May 29, 2005

jandc said:
Mr. Edz is well know for his childish posts on the German forums also. So his chain needed to be pulled.

John now trying his hand--- letting go of his chain for a moment--- at cheap slander. Do you even know my name (its what I use on all forums, save this one since when I registered it took my account, which is also my email name for the past 18 years, as my name but hey there is a signature... Hmmmmmm) and can you even read German?

As an aside I don't post on the "German forums" but I post to a single German forum.

As to credentials I think I have reasonably good ones (actually a few as I've worn quite a few hats).

David H. Bebbington · May 29, 2005

As a slight diversion from the mud-slinging, I might observe that the way this story is being reported is interesting.
This report
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,357801,00.html
gives a few more details, for example that it was the company itself that filed for bankruptcy. Both a company spokesman and the chairman of the joint works council (representatives of management and workers) claim to have been completely surprised by this development. No figures for company liquidity are being reported, the claim by a company spokesman that this development could not have been predicted rings rather hollow. My guess (for which I have no evidence) is that the decision to file for bankruptcy was taken after a board meeting and that the aim is to facilitate dismissal of numbers of workers. The article also says that production continued (past tense, no indication of for how long) after the announcement.
The journalist writing the story also helps muddy the waters by starting it "Der Foto- und Filmhersteller Agfa steht vor dem Aus" which means " ... is on the brink of oblivion." Sounds quite pessimistic, but then this report comes from the magazine "Der Spiegel", where pessismism is the house style.

edz · May 30, 2005

David H. Bebbington said:
gives a few more details, for example that it was the company itself that filed for bankruptcy.

That is always the case. You can't file for someone else. In Germany the law makes things even more difficult since if you don't file early enough and run up any debt after some might claim that you were no longer able to repay debt, then you can be convicted of "konkursverschleppung" (dragging out brankruptcy) which is a considered a form of fraud. Its a very fine line and the jails are seemingly filled with property developers and other failed entrepreneurs and speculators (.literally loose everything, pay a fine and go directly to jail as in "Monopoly"). This is why often legal staff are pulled-in (or a fall guy) to head the company to make sure that the "wrong" heads don't go the chopping block. I would expect that the move was long planned, perhaps looking at what is emerging about the financing of AgfaPhoto apriori to the founding of the company. Given that this rates among the largest bankruptcies in German post-war history more and more information--- and disinformation--- should start to emerge.
My gaze into the crystal ball? Beyond some massive redundencies I think we'll see a few of the divisions get spun-off and we'll also see (I'm now going really off on a speculative limb) some of the key patents get sucked off though Agfa Holding into other NannO ventures--- if this did not already happen as part of a loan to meet a previous month's wages.

gnashings · May 30, 2005

edz said:
Of course there are arguments against digital EXACTLY in that application.
- Digital gear is expensive (short product cycles)--- or do you expect people to use (or be able to use) the same digital camera for years on end?
- Because the inputs (RA-4 Paper and chemicals) are the same between analog and digital but the digital side needs constant technology tracking with shorter product cycles its more expensive to do and thus even with "mineral water" economies its still more expensive to provide prints.
- Digital "negatives" (e.g. storage") is far from archival. The best storage available today is Magneto-Optical (rated at 50 years) but few use them (and hardly any in this application). CDROM has less storage life than the reds in 1960s colour film--- very similar organic dyes. Few images shall outlive their short lived cameras. Since its about, to snatch an old ad slogan, "sharing memories" (snapshots) this is a not insignificant issue that most consumers don't understand.
- Digital has the gimic factor and its instant to view like a Polaroid but the "kick" seems to fade fast among consumers.
- Most people effectively don't take many pictures. Looking at the output statistics the cost of using digital is thus several times over the cost of using film.

And already now, following the boom/fad, we are seeing a decline in demand for these low cost digital cameras. Companies like HP are trying to hold-on and prices are in free fall (already now 4 MP cameras are available at the 70 EURO price point) and demand is slowing. These consumer digital cameras won't go the way of the Furbee or Cabbage Patch fads but its increasingly clear that its an unfortunate market for vendors. 3G cellular phones too have not really been catching on and this might too indicate that the digital imaging consumer market is much softer than the hype has suggested.

In the context of Agfa? They are on the bleeding edge of the digital mini-labs and so its not really "missed the boat" but that the boat is .....

I can see that either your reading comperhension or your economic theory leave much to be desired:
product cycles, blah blah blah - do you think the average person cares? no. do you think that the average person can tell the difference between their 3 year old camera and the brand new one, image quality-wise? no. Do they go and buy a new one anyways? YES!
Do you think the average person can define "archival"? no.
I love film as much as any of you, and I personally, have no use for digital photography for those and many other reasons. The fact is, I am not the soccer mom next door, and I am sure she is not worrying herself sick about the "archival" quality of the 4x6 she is stuffing into a shoe box, wishing she could e-mail it to all her friends. Oh, and one more thing: digital technology does not "need" shorter product cycles - just that it CAN GET AWAY with them, fleecing the people, because, oh yes, the market is there. And the digital cam phones are not catching up because - brace yourself - it has nothing to do with photography...After the initial rush, people realized that they have no use for them. And what you fail to understand is that what people actually do matters very little - its what they like to think they might do that drives this market. And yes, they take more digital pictures, simply because they can. How many get printed? That is a different story - and one of the selling features of digital photo to the masses. Most of them get e-mailed to friends and family who don't really want to see them, but at least can delete them from a mail box rather than sit over a session of photo album agony, looking at underexposed shots of junior with no head in front of the family dog's left front paw for the 100th time...
And one more thing:
"Prices are in free fall!!!"
No $h!t, Sherlock - the computer I am typing this on would cost more than my house ten years ago, I got it for $200 this year - please tell me you just had a bad day, because if you can't see something that obvious...Oh well, best of luck to you anyways...

I really am the staunchest film supporter you will likely ever meet... but I am not delusional.

Jim Chinn · May 30, 2005

It does not surprise me that Agfa is going under. I understand from a reliable source that Forte has shuttered there plant and what ever is being shipped or sold is product from final production runs. When it is gone Forte is gone.

Ilford seems to be making a commitment to B&W, although I still do know if that includes supporting LF sheet film. I also have been told that a major meeting and anouncements about Ilford's products (including new offerings for B&W) will be coming after the middle of June.

As I have stated on this and other forums there are two realities that film enthusiasts, especially sheet film users need to start to come to grips with.

1. The range of products will be greatly reduced for the immeadiate future. We are going to need to learn to work with one or two film mfgs and a couple of emulsions each. Think Efke and Ilford. Does Foma make efke or their own films? If they have their own line I suspect they may be around. As far as paper goes it may come down to Ilford products and hopefully a replacement for AZO when the current stock runs out. When I mean Ilford I am including papers sold under a different name such as Cachet.

Kodak may stay in the game if they can contract production for other products at their remaining coating plant(s?). My personal belief with Kodak is that they will continue in some capacity but eliminate many products or license production to another mfg like Ilford has done with its chemistry.

2. Film and paper will become more expensive. Your choices will be to pay the prices or dump film and go digital. Complaining and saying you will go to a different mfg will not be an option. Everyone will raise prices.

The market for B&W film and paper will remain a strong niche market. When a leveling off of declining demand is achieved and companies can begin to assess the long term demand for specific formats and products we will begin to see niche mfgs come onto the scene. Think Mexico, China, Vietnam, Russia.

Waht is required right now is a weeding out process that will allow at least one or two players to capture enough market share to keep analoge production profitable.

Personally I have always supported Ilford and will be using Efke for my LF work. For me this makes the most sense for supporting continuity of products.

edz · May 30, 2005

gnashings said:
I can see that either your reading comperhension or your economic theory leave much to be desired:
product cycles, blah blah blah - do you think the average person cares? no.

I think the "average person" can be made to care. Its called information. Its called issue perception. Its called marketing. Instead the consumers have been sold digital as a replacement for film pared with the lie that its cheaper lacking film. Following an initial optimism for demand of digital prints the market has noticed a weaking of growth and a decline in revenues.

do you think that the average person can tell the difference between their 3 year old camera and the brand new one,

Probably since their 3 year old camera probably does not work.

image quality-wise? no. Do they go and buy a new one anyways? YES!

If so what a camera (like the HPs I mentioned) at the supermarket for 70 EUROs?

Do you think the average person can define "archival"? no.

Do I think the average person will need to "discover" what it means? YES.

digital technology does not "need" shorter product cycles

It does. Its part of the silicon economy.

And the digital cam phones are not catching up because - brace yourself - it has nothing to do with photography...

Most of the cellphones sold today in Europe include digital cameras. They have caught on big time and its really only the mega-pixel lead-up of the low-end consumer cameras (like 5 Megapixel for under 100 EURO verses the 1 or 2 Megapixel in the phones) that continues to allow for product differentiation. Current market analysis seems to suggest that as processor and memory technology develops to allow for mass 3 mp camera cell phones--- maybe a year away--- that this might change. What has not caught on is 3G services but there is a long case history that should have made this clear--- back to the failed AT&T picture phone of the 1960s. Its really quite consistent that even WAP did not catch on yet SMS did.

After the initial rush, people realized that they have no use for them.

Almost all new phones include cameras don't they?

Most of them get e-mailed to friends and family who don't really want to see them,

And that's the model application of the camera in the cell-phone. No need to even hook anything up. If that's the main application of digital cameras then we'd see a lot of images being send by these phones yet we don't. The main use seems to be the same as with the mass cunsumer digital cameras: a little gadget to take a picture, store it and look at it later (maybe with friends) and then throw away.

"Prices are in free fall!!!"
No $h!t, Sherlock - the computer I am typing this on would cost more than my house ten years ago, I got it for $200 this year - please tell me you just had a bad day

Don't confuse apples with oranges. A 1990 computer and a 2000 computer and a 2005 computer are completely different objects. Its like talking about the hot dog you ate in 1965. Its long ago passed through the food chain into many generations of hot dogs.

edz · May 30, 2005

Jim Chinn said:
It does not surprise me that Agfa is going under. I understand from a reliable source that Forte has shuttered there plant and what ever is being shipped or sold is product from final production runs. When it is gone Forte is gone.

Hmmmmm... that's the same rumour making the rounds about Ilford

Ilford seems to be making a commitment to B&W, although I still do know if that includes supporting LF sheet film. I also have been told that a major meeting and anouncements about Ilford's products (including new offerings for B&W) will be coming after the middle of June.

That "meeting" keeps being shifted and all kinds of information, dis-information and rumours seem to abound.

each. Think Efke and Ilford.

Efke? They are ill-positioned in the food chain. They lack a developed distribution channel and have been shrinking and shrinking and skrinking.. Soon they'll have less employees than any of the larger US camera retailers (Efke has long passed under the 100 employee mark). Where also do you think they will be able to get their raw inputs?

Does Foma make efke or their own films?

Foma make Foma materials. Efke make most of their materials (well colour is OEMed). FOMA is a much larger company (400 or so employees) and are well established in the East European X-Ray market. In the east there is still a lot of money to be made in X-Ray.

Kodak may stay in the game if they can contract production for other products at their remaining coating plant(s?). My personal belief with Kodak is that they will continue in some capacity but eliminate many products or license production to another mfg like Ilford has done with its chemistry.

Kodak has the most state-of-the-art coating facillity on the planet. You think with the efficiency and quality of that plant (which can meet world demand) they are going to subcontract to Ekfe to make stuff on their old machines (which were surplus back in the early 1970s when Dupont sold them after taking down the Adox factory)? This is not even Jetsons versus the Flintstones but more like the difference in cine technology between Disney's "Steamboat Willie" and "Lord of the Rings". Add in the amazing amount of intellectual property stockpiled at Eastman and... well Efke with some old machines and some materials they got which where made at Orwo back when Wolfen was a major industrial centre of the German Democratic Republic ..

Film and paper will become more expensive. Your choices will be to pay the prices or dump film and go digital.

If its about printing then digital too will get more expensive since the current state-of-the-art in services is the same papers and chemistries.

Jim Chinn · May 30, 2005

Just because Kodak spent millions building a new plant does not mean they cannot shut it down tommorrow if management thinks it will raise the stock price today. It would simply be a write down as a capital loss and the money saved from laying off the workers would quickly find its way in a higher stock price.

With the poor management at Kodak over the last 20 years I suspect that building the new coating plant was as much about the inertia of a bungling buearacracy as anything else. My wife works for a major airline that spent almost $500 million dollars in the 80s building new hubs, terminals, licensing routes and gates, only to sell or shutter 80% of those facilites in the 90s all because management was to myopic to see what coming down the road.

That coating line did not come in one piece. In retrospect Kodak may dissasemble and move it somewhere else. I am surprised they did not build that plant in Mexico instead of the US. Either way, I will be surprised if Kodak is making film in the US 5 years from now.

Max Power · May 30, 2005

Jim Chinn said:
As I have stated on this and other forums there are two realities that film enthusiasts, especially sheet film users need to start to come to grips with.

1. The range of products will be greatly reduced for the immeadiate future. We are going to need to learn to work with one or two film mfgs and a couple of emulsions each.

2. Film and paper will become more expensive. Your choices will be to pay the prices or dump film and go digital. Complaining and saying you will go to a different mfg will not be an option. Everyone will raise prices.

The market for B&W film and paper will remain a strong niche market. When a leveling off of declining demand is achieved and companies can begin to assess the long term demand for specific formats and products we will begin to see niche mfgs come onto the scene. Think Mexico, China, Vietnam, Russia.

Waht is required right now is a weeding out process that will allow at least one or two players to capture enough market share to keep analoge production profitable.

I have to say, Jim, that you have hit the nail on the head; this is almost certainly what will happen.

Very logically put and succinctly said.

Cheers,
Kent

kiku · May 30, 2005

Jim Chinn:
I've sent you a PM.
Kiku

SchwinnParamount · May 30, 2005

gnashings said:
I can see that either your reading comperhension or your economic theory leave much to be desired:...
"Prices are in free fall!!!"
No $h!t, Sherlock - the computer I am typing this on would cost more than my house ten years ago, I got it for $200 this year - please tell me you just had a bad day, because if you can't see something that obvious...Oh well, best of luck to you anyways...

OK, new rule. To avoid making somebody mad, it is now your responsibility to know what everyone else knows and don't repeat information that even a single other person might already know. God forbid that you might be accused of stating the "obvious" and insulting someone's intelligence.

Or, how about this one: If someone states what is "obvious" to you, assume that not everyone is as smart and observant as you are. With that, you can push back away from your computer desk, take a deep breath... and don't send a response to that post. You can avoid looking like an evil, wicked, mean and nasty email flamer. The world will be a better place because of your forbearance.

Leonidas · May 30, 2005

gnashings said:
I can see that either your reading comperhension or your economic theory leave much to be desired:
product cycles, blah blah blah - do you think the average person cares? no. do you think that the average person can tell the difference between their 3 year old camera and the brand new one, image quality-wise? no. Do they go and buy a new one anyways? YES!
Do you think the average person can define "archival"? no.
I love film as much as any of you, and I personally, have no use for digital photography for those and many other reasons. The fact is, I am not the soccer mom next door, and I am sure she is not worrying herself sick about the "archival" quality of the 4x6 she is stuffing into a shoe box, wishing she could e-mail it to all her friends. Oh, and one more thing: digital technology does not "need" shorter product cycles - just that it CAN GET AWAY with them, fleecing the people, because, oh yes, the market is there. And the digital cam phones are not catching up because - brace yourself - it has nothing to do with photography...After the initial rush, people realized that they have no use for them. And what you fail to understand is that what people actually do matters very little - its what they like to think they might do that drives this market. And yes, they take more digital pictures, simply because they can. How many get printed? That is a different story - and one of the selling features of digital photo to the masses. Most of them get e-mailed to friends and family who don't really want to see them, but at least can delete them from a mail box rather than sit over a session of photo album agony, looking at underexposed shots of junior with no head in front of the family dog's left front paw for the 100th time...
And one more thing:
"Prices are in free fall!!!"
No $h!t, Sherlock - the computer I am typing this on would cost more than my house ten years ago, I got it for $200 this year - please tell me you just had a bad day, because if you can't see something that obvious...Oh well, best of luck to you anyways...

I really am the staunchest film supporter you will likely ever meet... but I am not delusional.

Why you are so aggressive? What is the point!!!!

Agfa-photo bankrupt

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