I vote for the negative popping.
I have a hard time believing that only a minute's worth of radiant energy from a 75 watt incandescent lamp can cause a cast metal lens carriage to heat up enough to expand and shift focus.
Cinema projectors do exhibit this effect but we're talking about 2,000 watt (and sometimes up to 6,000 watt) xenon lamps which burn at an external temperature of several hundred degrees Celsius. Even in that case, it takes a few minutes for the focus to start shifting and the machine probably takes 10 minutes or more to reach equilibrium.
If you're seeing a focus drift in a few seconds or even up to a minute or more, I can't see where thermal expansion of the enlarger chassis could be the cause.
Put the your grain focuser on the easel and focus the image well. Leave the lamp on for whatever time it takes your focus to start drifting. I'll bet you can actually watch the negative popping through the grain focuser. To me, it looks like a wave of blurriness washing over the negative. It's a strange effect to watch until you get used to seeing it.
If thermal expansion was the cause it would take several minutes to go away. Once the metal heats up in a movie projector it takes 15 minutes or more for it to cool down again with the exhaust fan running full time. If heat was expanding your enlarger's chassis it would take a while for it to cool down, too.
Solution #1: Glass negative carrier.
There ain't no way that negative's going to move when it's sandwiched between two sheets of glass.
Solution #2: Preheat the negative before making your final exposure.
Get your exposure worked up the way you want. When it's time to make your final exposure let the film heat up and pop before you fine tune the focus one last time. When you're ready to make the print, use a piece of heavy cardboard to block the lens and make one "false" exposure to heat the film and force it to pop. Since you already popped the negative before you focused, it should pop INTO FOCUS. Quickly remove the cardboard and hit the button to start your clock. Since the film is already hot it should already be in focus, too.
I have an older Beseler 23C enlarger with the integral filter drawer cast into the lens carriage. I don't use those filters. I use the large gel filters that fit in the top slot, up above the condenser. So, what I did was cut a piece of sheet metal to fit into the lower filter holder. I use that to block the light when I want to make a false exposure to compensate for negative pop.