This might be a stupid question - but is there any voltage stabiliser on the enlarger power supply?
If you exposed one lot late at night when electrical load is light, you could be getting a quite a bit higher voltage than you expect, and then the next day, if you expose during the daytime, the voltage drops due to other loads on the line could markedly (though not likely by two stops) cause changes in the light output.
The other variable might be printing one with a MG filter in, and the other with it out?
The other thing is your bulb might be about to burn out; they burn a fair bit brighter sometimes, then dim, then die.
I can't find the reference at the moment, but I seem to recall that there is something like a 3% light output change per 1% voltage change.